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IB DP Maths AI HL Study Notes

4.3.3 Advanced Applications

Time Series Analysis

Time series analysis involves examining ordered data points, usually spaced at uniform time intervals, to identify patterns, trends, and cyclic behaviours, crucial for forecasting future values.

Components of Time Series

  • Trend: A long-term movement in data.
  • Seasonality: Patterns that repeat at known, regular intervals.
  • Cyclic Patterns: Fluctuations occurring due to economic cycles, typically over two or more years.
  • Irregular Component: Unpredictable, random fluctuations.

Time Series Models

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)

ARIMA models are widely used in time series forecasting. They require the series to be stationary, meaning it has constant mean and variance over time.

  • AR (Autoregressive): The value of the series at a point in time is linearly related to its previous values.
  • I (Integrated): Differencing of observations to make the time series stationary.
  • MA (Moving Average): The dependency between an observation and a residual error from a moving average model applied to lagged observations.

Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving-Average (SARIMA)

SARIMA models incorporate seasonality by considering additional seasonal terms.

Example Question 1

Given a time series data: [5, 8, 12, 15, 12, 8, 5, 8, 12, 15, 12, 8], identify a possible seasonal component and trend.

Answer: The data seems to repeat the pattern [5, 8, 12, 15] thrice, suggesting a seasonal component with a period of 4. The consistent repetition without an upward or downward progression indicates no apparent trend.

Seasonal Variations

Seasonal variations are fluctuations in time-series data that occur at regular intervals, such as monthly or yearly.

Decomposition of Time Series

Time series can be decomposed into several components: Trend-Cycle, Seasonal, and Remainder. The original series (O) can be expressed as a product or sum of these components:Ot = Tt * St * Rt or Ot = Tt + St + Rt

Methods of Studying Seasonal Variations

Moving Averages Method

This method involves calculating moving averages to smooth out short-term fluctuations and highlight longer-term trends or cycles.

Seasonal Indices

Seasonal indices are used to measure the degree of seasonality in a series. It is the ratio of actual data to the deseasonalised data.

Example Question 2

Given a deseasonalised data point of 150 and a seasonal index of 1.2 for the month of December, find the original data point.

Answer: If we use the multiplicative model:Ot = Tt * St

The original data point (Ot) can be found by multiplying the deseasonalised data (Tt) by the seasonal index (St): Ot = 150 * 1.2 = 180

FAQ

Time series analysis is specifically designed for data that is ordered chronologically. The primary objective is to identify patterns over time. However, the techniques used in time series analysis, such as moving averages or exponential smoothing, can sometimes be applied to non-chronological data to smooth out fluctuations and better understand underlying patterns. But it's essential to be cautious and understand that the assumptions and interpretations behind time series methods are rooted in the analysis of chronological data.

While time series forecasting can be incredibly valuable, relying on it too heavily can lead to several pitfalls. One major concern is overfitting, where a model might fit past data very well but fail to predict future data accurately. Another issue is that time series forecasting assumes that past patterns will continue into the future, which might not always be the case, especially in the presence of unprecedented events or structural changes. Additionally, external factors not present in the historical data can influence future data points. It's always essential to use time series forecasting as one tool among many and to regularly reassess and validate the forecasts against actual data.

Deseasonalising a time series means removing the seasonal components, leaving behind the trend and any irregular components. This is beneficial because it allows for a clearer view of the underlying trend in the data without the potential distraction of seasonal fluctuations. By studying the deseasonalised data, analysts can make more accurate forecasts and better understand the long-term movements in the data. Moreover, it aids in identifying any anomalies or irregularities in the data that might be masked by strong seasonal patterns.

A time series and a sequence both consist of a set of data points ordered in a specific manner. However, the primary difference lies in the context. A time series is a series of data points indexed in time order, typically at successive equally spaced points in time. It is used to analyse trends, seasonality, and other patterns in data over time. On the other hand, a sequence is an ordered list of elements, not necessarily related to time. In maths, sequences are used to study patterns among numbers, and they don't necessarily have the time component associated with them.

There are several reasons why a time series might not exhibit a clear seasonal component. Firstly, the data might genuinely not have any seasonality. For instance, certain financial metrics might remain relatively stable throughout the year. Secondly, the data might be too noisy, with random fluctuations masking any underlying seasonal pattern. Additionally, the time series might be too short to identify a seasonal pattern, especially if the seasonality occurs over a longer period. Lastly, external factors or events might disrupt the usual seasonal patterns, making them harder to detect.

Practice Questions

Given the time series data: [12, 15, 22, 26, 15, 12, 22, 26, 15, 12, 22, 26], analyse the data and identify the type of seasonality present. Also, calculate the seasonal index for the first season.

The given time series data is [12, 15, 22, 26, 15, 12, 22, 26, 15, 12, 22, 26], and it appears to repeat the pattern [12, 15, 22, 26] three times, suggesting a seasonal component with a period of 4. This is an example of multiplicative seasonality since the magnitude of the seasonal fluctuations increases with the level of the series. To calculate the seasonal index for the first season, we can take the average of the ratios of actual data to the deseasonalised data (assuming we have it) for all occurrences of that season. Without the deseasonalised data, this cannot be calculated, but the approach would involve dividing each data point in the season by the corresponding deseasonalised data point, summing these up, and then dividing by the number of occurrences of the season.

A company observes the following sales figures (in thousands) over 8 months: [15, 18, 22, 25, 18, 15, 22, 25]. Assuming a linear trend, estimate the sales figure for the 9th month.

The given sales figures are [15, 18, 22, 25, 18, 15, 22, 25], and it seems like there is a repeating pattern every 4 months, suggesting seasonality. However, the question asks to assume a linear trend. To estimate the sales figure for the 9th month, we might look at the overall increase from month to month. From month 1 to month 5 (both representing the same season and thus eliminating the seasonal effect), the sales increase from 15 to 18, an increase of 3. Similarly, from month 2 to month 6, sales increase by 3. Assuming this trend continues, we might predict the sales for the 9th month to be 3 more than the 5th month, so 18 + 3 = 21 (thousand). This is a very basic method and in practice, more sophisticated forecasting techniques would be used.

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