How did governance models evolve in states in decline?

Governance models in declining states often evolve towards centralisation, authoritarianism, or fragmentation, depending on the specific circumstances.

In the face of decline, states often resort to centralisation as a means of consolidating power and maintaining control. This involves the concentration of decision-making authority at a single point in the political system, typically in the hands of a central government or a single leader. This can be seen in the late Roman Empire, where emperors increasingly centralised power to manage the empire's decline. Similarly, the Qing Dynasty in China centralised power in response to internal rebellions and external threats in the 19th century.

However, centralisation is not the only response to decline. Some states may evolve towards authoritarianism, where power is concentrated in the hands of a small group or a single leader, and civil liberties and political freedoms are restricted. This is often justified as a necessary measure to maintain order and stability in the face of decline. For example, the Weimar Republic in Germany evolved into Nazi Germany, an authoritarian state under Adolf Hitler, in response to economic decline and political instability.

On the other hand, some states may fragment in the face of decline, with power devolving to regional or local authorities. This can occur when the central government is unable to effectively govern or maintain control over its territory. For instance, the decline of the Soviet Union led to the fragmentation of power, with former Soviet republics gaining independence and establishing their own governance models.

In some cases, states may also experiment with different governance models in an attempt to reverse decline. For example, the Meiji Restoration in Japan saw the country transition from a feudal shogunate to a modern, centralised state, in an effort to modernise and resist Western imperialism.

In conclusion, the evolution of governance models in declining states is complex and multifaceted, shaped by a range of factors including the nature of the decline, the existing political system, and the specific historical and cultural context.