How do birth and death rates change in the DTM?

In the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), birth and death rates change through five distinct stages of development.

In Stage 1, both birth and death rates are high due to limited access to healthcare, poor sanitation, and a lack of family planning. This results in a relatively stable and low population growth. Societies in this stage are often pre-industrial and rely heavily on agriculture.

Stage 2 sees a significant drop in death rates as a result of improvements in medical care, sanitation, and food supply. However, birth rates remain high because cultural norms and lack of access to contraception still encourage large families. This leads to a rapid increase in population.

In Stage 3, birth rates begin to decline as societies become more urbanised and industrialised. Improved access to education, particularly for women, and better family planning methods contribute to this decrease. Death rates continue to fall but at a slower pace, leading to a slowing of population growth.

Stage 4 is characterised by both low birth and death rates, stabilising the population. This stage reflects a mature industrial society where people have fewer children due to economic factors, lifestyle choices, and widespread use of contraception. Healthcare is advanced, keeping death rates low.

Finally, Stage 5, which some demographers propose, involves very low birth rates that may fall below death rates, leading to a declining population. This stage is seen in highly developed countries where economic pressures, career priorities, and lifestyle choices lead to fewer births.

Understanding these stages helps us analyse how different countries develop over time and the challenges they face at each stage.